Longevity vs. An Aging Population: Enemies Or Allies?
Let’s do a little bit of math.
In 1960, the average life expectancy in the United States was 69.8 years old. In 2019, almost 60 years later, the average life expectancy rose to 78.8 years, almost a decade longer.
It comes as no surprise that due to the immense advancements in our understanding of the aging field, preventative approaches, treatment, and improved assistance programs, we lead longer lives. However, in a bit more surprising manner, there is an opposing trend when it comes to fertility rates.
The fertility rate is the average number of births per woman. Wheres in 1960, this rate averaged 3.654 in the US, by 2019, this number had decreased to 1.705, less than half.
And so, we stumble to an equation that is shaping demographics across the world, and presenting challenges for years to come:
Longer Life Expectancy + Fewer Births= An Aging Population.
An Aging Population
An aging population is exactly what you might expect: a population that has a larger ratio of older persons compared to other age groups. And as you might expect, it is not a new concept, instead, it is a global phenomenon.
Many countries such as South Korea, China, Germany, and Spain have declared they have an aging population. According to a new report by the Pew Research Center, by 2050, the number of people aged over 65 will triple. And according to the United Nations, this could mean 1 in every 6 people would be older than 65.
However, countries like Japan are already starting to feel the impacts. As the oldest society in the world and the third-largest economy, Japan’s population is facing a demographic crisis. Japan currently has the second-highest life expectancy at 85.03 years. Currently, almost 30% of Japan’s population is over the age of 65. By 2060 this ratio is expected to rise to 38%.
In order to make due, Japan has passed policies like the Long-Term-Care Insurance plan and turned to technology to boost care aids.
On the other hand, several developing countries that have not faced an aging population are beginning to see the first trends that point to it.
How did we get here?
Though the increase in life expectancy is attributed to scientific developments, the decrease in fertility rates is due to a complex change in mental societal shifts, expectations, and living tends that vary from country to country.
Throughout the past decades, a shift in the opportunities for women has allowed women to have children later in life. This trend is accompanied by “ increases in educational attainment, growing labour force participation and delays in marriage” as well as an increase in the popularity of mature oocyte cryopreservation, also known as egg freezing. At the same time, high child mortality rates that “kept population growth low and fertility rates high” especially in developing countries are now falling.
On the other hand, the rates of teenage pregnancies have significantly dropped. In the US, teen births are at an all-time low, at 17.4 births per 1000 women in 2018, as opposed to around 78 per 1000 women in 1960.
Experts believe this is because of an increase in sex education and pregnancy prevention; for example, 39 out of 50 states and the District of Columbia have mandated sex and/or HIV education so that topics such as STDs transmission are covered in middle or high school curriculums.
Furthermore, a surge of use of effective contraceptives, increased access to support non-profits such as Planned Parenthood have helped.
However, changes in living trends have also affected the elderly. According to Forbes, “Multigenerational living that has been a tradition in countries such as Japan is now much less common.” In fact, in countries in Europe, “more than forty percent of women sixty-five and older live alone.”
According to a study conducted by the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), more than 40% of seniors have reported feeling regularly lonely and isolated, both of which have been linked with a higher risk of developing dementia and worsening health.
Economic and Social Repercussions
According to the RAND Corporation, “Our results imply annual GDP growth will slow by 1.2 percentage points this decade due to population aging.” This is a result of two main consequences to an aging population: a loss of economic output and a strained economy.
In addition to worsening health, a motivator for retirement is also… the idea of it.
We have all heard of the ideal American post-retirement life: reading a book by a beach, taking a stroll under the warm sun, following a hobby you have always loved but never had quite the time for, and caring for your children or grandchildren. And so it is not a surprise that the majority of Americans retire relatively early in their later life.
In fact, according to a survey conducted by Natixis Investment Managers, most Americans plan on retiring at 62. With an increasingly large portion of the population retiring, there will be a large drop in the number of workers and thus economic output.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US is already seeing a decline in economic growth at least in part due to the end of the baby boom which happened between 1946 and 1964.
In addition to a drop in economic output, the IMF also discusses the rates of consumption as an example of the increasing tension in the current economy. Though the elderly are leaving the workforce, they, along with children, are still a large portion of the consumers.
The rate of workers to consumers is called the support ratio. And today, we live in a work of decreasing workforce that has to support a fast-growing consumer base, and therefore low support ratio; between 2015–2050, in the US, the support ratio is expected to drop 0.26 percent per year. Unfortunately, this doesn’t make for a very stable market or supply chain.
And to the most basic cause, government-supported health care and assistance exacerbate the already existing tension in the economy.
Longevity x Aging Population
So let me guess what you are thinking right now: focusing on science that helps increase lifespan seems to be a complete waste of resources. And though it seems logical at first to look at longevity as the enemy, and, perhaps, cause of the aging population, it is actually the solution.
Let me explain.
Whenever we think of longevity, what often first comes to mind is lifespan, or how long we live. However, the field of longevity also focuses on improving what is called your healthspan, or how many years you remain healthy, well, and free of chronic disease. Earlier, I brought up the concept of life expectancy, a measure of lifespan which in the US is about 78 years old. And though, there is no straightforward way to measure healthspan as there are different definitions of what it means to be “healthy”, it is estimated to be about 63–66 years old.
That’s more than a 10–15 year difference!
Apart from developing economic plans, and assistance programs, we should think about the older generations that are being affected in the first place: in order to target the current aging population, we must focus on improving healthspan.
This is because the longer we can maintain healthspan, the stronger and healthier will a growing part of our population be. Not only could this mean, more productive workers, and later retirement, but it could also mean a drop in the necessity of health care and assistance resources. Instead of living about 20% of our lives, and especially the later years of our lifetime, in physical pain, we can shrink that window.
Most importantly, a healthier elderly population means quality extra time we have with our loved ones, our parents, grandparents, great-grandparents who all have done so much to create the world we live in today.
Key Takeaways:
- Over the past few decades, there has been a decrease in the fertility rate and an increase in life expectancy. The combination of the two causes what is called an aging population.
- Many countries currently have aging populations, such as Japan and South Korea.
- A large contributor to the decrease in fertility rates is the societal shift of opportunities for women.
- There are economic repercussions such as a decrease in economic output and growth that result.
- Focusing on healthspan could be a key solution to solving the problems the aging population presents.
*references embedded in the text*
On a Personal Note:
In the words of Nelson Mandela, “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” So thank you for reading my article and helping spread a bit of knowledge at a time.
If you enjoyed this article, feel free to like it, view more of the content from Biotein, and visit our website.
If you want to learn more about me you can visit our medium page where we talk about a myriad of topics ranging from our journey to battling misconceptions around the longevity field. And most relevantly, if you would like to learn more about the ongoing debate of healthspan as the solution to the aging population you can find some resources here, here, or here!
